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According to the existing reliable projections, the domestic consumption of oil will match the total oil production in year 2010 provided that the present state of oil consumption will continue to hold in the next 15 years. This will lead to the reduction of oil exports, and its foreign exchange revenues to virtually zero. This would take place at the time when our population will have increased to $5 million.
A part from various measures that might be taken to reduce the domestic oil consumption, it seems inevitable to plan for replacing oil foreign exchange revenues with those of non-oil exports. The calculations made in this article indicate that with the assumption to maintain the present level of G.D.P. per capita as well as per capita of export revenue ,it is essential to target for 7.4
percent annual G.D.P. growth rate in average, and to plan for at least 14 percent of annual growth in non-oil exports.
To acheive this objective, we should emphasis on four basic policies as follows; restructuring the investment and
production in the real sector based on the export orientation, creation of comparative advantage by adopting strategic trade policy, expansion of favorable international economic and trade relations, and last but not least persisting in the economic reforms.